Current forecast consensus from ECMWF and GFS ensembles positions Milan’s highest temperature today around 20–21 °C, driven by a lingering low-pressure system over northern Italy that maintains northerly airflow and widespread cloud cover. These conditions suppress daytime solar heating and keep readings well below the mid-May climatological average of 22 °C recorded at Milano Linate. Limited afternoon clearing could allow brief warming toward 22 °C, while any additional showers would cap the peak closer to 20 °C. Traders are weighting the 21 °C outcome highest at 38.5 % implied probability, reflecting the tight clustering of model guidance and the absence of strong warming signals in the latest runs. Final resolution will hinge on official hourly observations through the evening.