Ensemble forecasts from major meteorological centers indicate a daily maximum of 21–22°C in Milan on May 17 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, which explains the market’s tight split between those two outcomes at 36.5% and 35.5%. Recent northerly advection that kept highs in the mid-teens earlier in the month has eased, allowing gradual warming, yet variable cloud cover and limited boundary-layer mixing introduce enough uncertainty to keep 20°C at 17% while rendering 23°C or higher unlikely at under 12% combined. Resolution will depend on the official reading at Milan Linate, where climatological May maxima average near 22°C.