Official forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ECMWF ensemble models currently converge on a 14°C nighttime minimum for Seoul on May 16 under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds. These conditions favor efficient radiative cooling at the surface, consistent with mid-May climatology where Seoul Central Observatory records show overnight lows clustering between 12°C and 16°C. Market traders have priced the exact 14°C outcome above 99 percent because recent drier air masses have reduced urban heat retention and model runs show minimal spread around this value. A sudden increase in cloud cover or a shift to stronger northerly flow could raise the low into the 15°C range, while an unexpected cold-air intrusion remains the primary risk for dipping to 13°C or below.