SpaceX's rapid Falcon 9 reuse cadence and dense Starlink deployment schedule currently anchor trader expectations for 12–13 total launches in May 2026, with 13 holding a narrow lead. As of mid-month, four orbital missions have already flown from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, including multiple Starlink batches and the CRS-34 resupply to the International Space Station. Remaining confirmed windows cluster around May 19–23 and feature additional Starlink flights plus the debut Starship Version 3 test, whose expendable profile could add one extra flight without recovery constraints. Uncertainties center on potential weather delays at Florida pads, range conflicts, and any last-minute technical holds that historically compress late-month opportunities. New model runs from the National Reconnaissance Office or NOAA forecasts could shift probabilities if they alter the May 19–21 launch windows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트12 44%
≤8 35.9%
11 33%
10 20%
≤8
36%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
44%
13
46%
14 or more
12%
12 44%
≤8 35.9%
11 33%
10 20%
≤8
36%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
44%
13
46%
14 or more
12%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
마켓 개설일: Apr 27, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's rapid Falcon 9 reuse cadence and dense Starlink deployment schedule currently anchor trader expectations for 12–13 total launches in May 2026, with 13 holding a narrow lead. As of mid-month, four orbital missions have already flown from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, including multiple Starlink batches and the CRS-34 resupply to the International Space Station. Remaining confirmed windows cluster around May 19–23 and feature additional Starlink flights plus the debut Starship Version 3 test, whose expendable profile could add one extra flight without recovery constraints. Uncertainties center on potential weather delays at Florida pads, range conflicts, and any last-minute technical holds that historically compress late-month opportunities. New model runs from the National Reconnaissance Office or NOAA forecasts could shift probabilities if they alter the May 19–21 launch windows.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문