Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 530 confirmed events across multiple states, form the primary driver pushing market-implied odds heavily toward a 1250+ total for the year. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data show this pace running well above the 1991–2020 seasonal average, with March and April each posting counts more than double typical climatological norms amid repeated outbreaks. Historical annual averages hover near 1,200 tornadoes, and the remaining peak months of May–June historically contribute the largest share, though model consensus suggests some moderation if La Niña influences weaken. Traders appear to weigh the strong early momentum and continued above-average atmospheric instability against normal year-to-year variability in storm frequency and reporting adjustments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1250+ 81%
<950 4.7%
1200~1249 4.0%
1150~1199 3.9%
$72,212 거래량
$72,212 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150~1199
4%
1200~1249
9%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
<950 4.7%
1200~1249 4.0%
1150~1199 3.9%
$72,212 거래량
$72,212 거래량
2027.01.10
<950
$22,427 거래량
5%
950–999
$2,976 거래량
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 거래량
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 거래량
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 거래량
3%
1150~1199
$2,650 거래량
4%
1200~1249
$15,173 거래량
9%
1250+
$16,681 거래량
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 530 confirmed events across multiple states, form the primary driver pushing market-implied odds heavily toward a 1250+ total for the year. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data show this pace running well above the 1991–2020 seasonal average, with March and April each posting counts more than double typical climatological norms amid repeated outbreaks. Historical annual averages hover near 1,200 tornadoes, and the remaining peak months of May–June historically contribute the largest share, though model consensus suggests some moderation if La Niña influences weaken. Traders appear to weigh the strong early momentum and continued above-average atmospheric instability against normal year-to-year variability in storm frequency and reporting adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
거래량
$72,212종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 530 confirmed events across multiple states, form the primary driver pushing market-implied odds heavily toward a 1250+ total for the year. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data show this pace running well above the 1991–2020 seasonal average, with March and April each posting counts more than double typical climatological norms amid repeated outbreaks. Historical annual averages hover near 1,200 tornadoes, and the remaining peak months of May–June historically contribute the largest share, though model consensus suggests some moderation if La Niña influences weaken. Traders appear to weigh the strong early momentum and continued above-average atmospheric instability against normal year-to-year variability in storm frequency and reporting adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$72,212종료일
2027.01.10마켓 개설일
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated preliminary tornado reports through mid-May 2026, already exceeding 530 confirmed events across multiple states, form the primary driver pushing market-implied odds heavily toward a 1250+ total for the year. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center data show this pace running well above the 1991–2020 seasonal average, with March and April each posting counts more than double typical climatological norms amid repeated outbreaks. Historical annual averages hover near 1,200 tornadoes, and the remaining peak months of May–June historically contribute the largest share, though model consensus suggests some moderation if La Niña influences weaken. Traders appear to weigh the strong early momentum and continued above-average atmospheric instability against normal year-to-year variability in storm frequency and reporting adjustments.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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