Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.4% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and investment gains. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 14, nowcasts Q2 growth at 3.7%, further solidifying expectations for sustained positive momentum with half the year remaining. Broader forecasts from CBO and private sources project 1.7–2.5% annual growth, while recession odds have eased to around 25% across prediction markets. Key catalysts include upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and May CPI data influencing Fed policy outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$26,508 거래량
$26,508 거래량
2027.01.29
예
$26,508 거래량
$26,508 거래량
2027.01.29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.4% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and investment gains. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 14, nowcasts Q2 growth at 3.7%, further solidifying expectations for sustained positive momentum with half the year remaining. Broader forecasts from CBO and private sources project 1.7–2.5% annual growth, while recession odds have eased to around 25% across prediction markets. Key catalysts include upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and May CPI data influencing Fed policy outlook.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
거래량
$26,508종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.4% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and investment gains. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 14, nowcasts Q2 growth at 3.7%, further solidifying expectations for sustained positive momentum with half the year remaining. Broader forecasts from CBO and private sources project 1.7–2.5% annual growth, while recession odds have eased to around 25% across prediction markets. Key catalysts include upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and May CPI data influencing Fed policy outlook.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
거래량
$26,508종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87.4% implied probability against negative U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 expansion at a 2.0% annualized rate—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace amid resilient consumer spending and investment gains. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated May 14, nowcasts Q2 growth at 3.7%, further solidifying expectations for sustained positive momentum with half the year remaining. Broader forecasts from CBO and private sources project 1.7–2.5% annual growth, while recession odds have eased to around 25% across prediction markets. Key catalysts include upcoming Q2 GDP release in late July and May CPI data influencing Fed policy outlook.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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