Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 74% implied probability, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on internal tensions: CFO Sarah Friar has privately urged delaying a public listing until 2027, citing aggressive Q4 2026 timelines amid missed revenue and user growth targets disclosed in late April. With no S-1 filing submitted as of mid-May and OpenAI's complex capped-profit structure facing SEC scrutiny from state attorneys general, traders see significant barriers to a year-end debut. Ultra-high market caps like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect lingering hype from $122 billion private rounds but are tempered by execution shortfalls; upcoming catalysts include potential regulatory filings or Altman leadership updates that could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 74%
1.5조+ 8.9%
5,000억~7,500억 3.5%
1.25조–1.5조 3.5%
$1,637,996 거래량
$1,637,996 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
1%
5,000억~7,500억
3%
7,500억–1조
2%
1조–1.25조
3%
1.25조–1.5조
3%
1.5조+
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
74%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장 74%
1.5조+ 8.9%
5,000억~7,500억 3.5%
1.25조–1.5조 3.5%
$1,637,996 거래량
$1,637,996 거래량
2026.06.30
5,000억 달러 미만
$266,158 거래량
1%
5,000억~7,500억
$146,331 거래량
3%
7,500억–1조
$141,040 거래량
2%
1조–1.25조
$182,384 거래량
3%
1.25조–1.5조
$496,174 거래량
3%
1.5조+
$100,916 거래량
9%
2026년 12월 31일까지 미상장
$304,993 거래량
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 74% implied probability, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on internal tensions: CFO Sarah Friar has privately urged delaying a public listing until 2027, citing aggressive Q4 2026 timelines amid missed revenue and user growth targets disclosed in late April. With no S-1 filing submitted as of mid-May and OpenAI's complex capped-profit structure facing SEC scrutiny from state attorneys general, traders see significant barriers to a year-end debut. Ultra-high market caps like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect lingering hype from $122 billion private rounds but are tempered by execution shortfalls; upcoming catalysts include potential regulatory filings or Altman leadership updates that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
마켓 개설일: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
거래량
$1,637,996종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 74% implied probability, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on internal tensions: CFO Sarah Friar has privately urged delaying a public listing until 2027, citing aggressive Q4 2026 timelines amid missed revenue and user growth targets disclosed in late April. With no S-1 filing submitted as of mid-May and OpenAI's complex capped-profit structure facing SEC scrutiny from state attorneys general, traders see significant barriers to a year-end debut. Ultra-high market caps like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect lingering hype from $122 billion private rounds but are tempered by execution shortfalls; upcoming catalysts include potential regulatory filings or Altman leadership updates that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
거래량
$1,637,996종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 74% implied probability, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on internal tensions: CFO Sarah Friar has privately urged delaying a public listing until 2027, citing aggressive Q4 2026 timelines amid missed revenue and user growth targets disclosed in late April. With no S-1 filing submitted as of mid-May and OpenAI's complex capped-profit structure facing SEC scrutiny from state attorneys general, traders see significant barriers to a year-end debut. Ultra-high market caps like 1.5T+ (9%) reflect lingering hype from $122 billion private rounds but are tempered by execution shortfalls; upcoming catalysts include potential regulatory filings or Altman leadership updates that could shift sentiment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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