Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 42.1%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.1%
신규
신규
2026.07.23
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
43%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
42%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
56%
4.0–4.4%
50%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 42.1%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.1%
신규
신규
2026.07.23
<1.5%
$278 거래량
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 거래량
43%
2.0–2.4%
$351 거래량
20%
2.5–2.9%
$161 거래량
42%
3.0–3.4%
$154 거래량
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 거래량
56%
4.0–4.4%
$276 거래량
50%
4.5%+
$238 거래량
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
마켓 개설일: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
거래량
$1,961종료일
2026.07.23마켓 개설일
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
거래량
$1,961종료일
2026.07.23마켓 개설일
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Robust semiconductor exports and the Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 2026 YoY GDP print—the fastest pace in five years—have anchored trader consensus around the 3.5–4.4% range for Q2 growth, with the two leading buckets commanding roughly equal implied probabilities near 50-57%. Strong April trade figures and sustained AI-driven chip demand continue to lift the upper end, while softer employment gains, 2.6% inflation, and potential energy-supply disruptions from Middle East tensions weigh on domestic consumption and support the lower band. Analysts at KDI and JP Morgan have revised full-year forecasts upward to 2.5–3.0% on export momentum, yet anticipate a sequential slowdown in Q2. May trade data and global tech orders remain key near-term catalysts ahead of the July advance release.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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