U.S. pressure on Cuba has intensified through expanded sanctions and Justice Department inquiries into regime officials, yet these steps have centered on economic measures and preparations to indict former leader Raúl Castro rather than the current president. Recent executive actions target military-linked entities and human rights concerns without any Department of Justice announcements or indictments naming Miguel Díaz-Canel. Diplomatic barriers, jurisdictional limits on charging a sitting head of state, and Díaz-Canel’s public rejection of U.S. demands for leadership change have kept expectations of federal prosecution low through the June 2026 resolution window. Traders view these patterns as consistent with historical approaches favoring sanctions and targeted actions against past officials over direct criminal proceedings against the incumbent.