The absence of any formal US diplomatic recognition of Russian control over Ukrainian territory, despite repeated negotiation rounds through early 2026, underpins the 75.5 percent implied probability against such a step before January 1, 2027. President Trump’s administration has advanced peace frameworks that floated de facto acceptance of Russian holdings in Crimea and parts of Donbas, yet those proposals stalled after three failed Geneva sessions, Ukrainian rejection of territorial concessions, and congressional measures explicitly barring recognition without Kyiv’s consent. A brief US-mediated ceasefire in May 2026 produced no breakthrough on sovereignty questions, while recent UN resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity passed over US objections. Traders therefore view the remaining window as too narrow for the required executive action and Senate-level shifts needed to override entrenched non-recognition policy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$41,792 거래량
$41,792 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$41,792 거래량
$41,792 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.The absence of any formal US diplomatic recognition of Russian control over Ukrainian territory, despite repeated negotiation rounds through early 2026, underpins the 75.5 percent implied probability against such a step before January 1, 2027. President Trump’s administration has advanced peace frameworks that floated de facto acceptance of Russian holdings in Crimea and parts of Donbas, yet those proposals stalled after three failed Geneva sessions, Ukrainian rejection of territorial concessions, and congressional measures explicitly barring recognition without Kyiv’s consent. A brief US-mediated ceasefire in May 2026 produced no breakthrough on sovereignty questions, while recent UN resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity passed over US objections. Traders therefore view the remaining window as too narrow for the required executive action and Senate-level shifts needed to override entrenched non-recognition policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
거래량
$41,792종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.The absence of any formal US diplomatic recognition of Russian control over Ukrainian territory, despite repeated negotiation rounds through early 2026, underpins the 75.5 percent implied probability against such a step before January 1, 2027. President Trump’s administration has advanced peace frameworks that floated de facto acceptance of Russian holdings in Crimea and parts of Donbas, yet those proposals stalled after three failed Geneva sessions, Ukrainian rejection of territorial concessions, and congressional measures explicitly barring recognition without Kyiv’s consent. A brief US-mediated ceasefire in May 2026 produced no breakthrough on sovereignty questions, while recent UN resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity passed over US objections. Traders therefore view the remaining window as too narrow for the required executive action and Senate-level shifts needed to override entrenched non-recognition policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
거래량
$41,792종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any formal US diplomatic recognition of Russian control over Ukrainian territory, despite repeated negotiation rounds through early 2026, underpins the 75.5 percent implied probability against such a step before January 1, 2027. President Trump’s administration has advanced peace frameworks that floated de facto acceptance of Russian holdings in Crimea and parts of Donbas, yet those proposals stalled after three failed Geneva sessions, Ukrainian rejection of territorial concessions, and congressional measures explicitly barring recognition without Kyiv’s consent. A brief US-mediated ceasefire in May 2026 produced no breakthrough on sovereignty questions, while recent UN resolutions reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity passed over US objections. Traders therefore view the remaining window as too narrow for the required executive action and Senate-level shifts needed to override entrenched non-recognition policy.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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