North Korea’s recent constitutional amendments, which redefine its territory to recognize South Korea as a separate state and eliminate references to unification, have reinforced trader views that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before 2027. These changes, adopted earlier this year and publicized in May 2026, align with Kim Jong Un’s “two hostile states” policy first declared in late 2023, shifting focus toward nuclear deterrence, economic planning, and diplomatic engagement with Russia and China rather than offensive action across the DMZ. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s administration has responded with confidence-building measures, including efforts to restore dialogue and pursue peaceful coexistence, despite North Korea’s continued rejection of talks and routine missile tests. With strong U.S.-South Korea deterrence in place and no verified troop movements or preparations indicating imminent aggression, the market’s 93.5% probability for no invasion reflects this stable, if adversarial, status quo.