Recent U.S. policy has prioritized targeted airstrikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and secondary sanctions over any ground invasion of Iran, consistent with the 69.5% market price on “No.” Following the February 2026 start of joint U.S.-Israeli operations and the April ceasefire, the Pentagon has emphasized limited raids and air campaigns while rejecting open-ended ground commitments. Fresh May reports show Iran reconstituting missile launchers under the truce, prompting renewed U.S. strike warnings from President Trump, yet diplomacy continues through Pakistani mediation with deadlines into June. Traders view these patterns—high costs of occupation, focus on nuclear and missile objectives, and preference for economic pressure—as strong barriers to a full invasion before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$28,546,687 거래량
$28,546,687 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$28,546,687 거래량
$28,546,687 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. policy has prioritized targeted airstrikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and secondary sanctions over any ground invasion of Iran, consistent with the 69.5% market price on “No.” Following the February 2026 start of joint U.S.-Israeli operations and the April ceasefire, the Pentagon has emphasized limited raids and air campaigns while rejecting open-ended ground commitments. Fresh May reports show Iran reconstituting missile launchers under the truce, prompting renewed U.S. strike warnings from President Trump, yet diplomacy continues through Pakistani mediation with deadlines into June. Traders view these patterns—high costs of occupation, focus on nuclear and missile objectives, and preference for economic pressure—as strong barriers to a full invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
거래량
$28,546,687종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S. policy has prioritized targeted airstrikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and secondary sanctions over any ground invasion of Iran, consistent with the 69.5% market price on “No.” Following the February 2026 start of joint U.S.-Israeli operations and the April ceasefire, the Pentagon has emphasized limited raids and air campaigns while rejecting open-ended ground commitments. Fresh May reports show Iran reconstituting missile launchers under the truce, prompting renewed U.S. strike warnings from President Trump, yet diplomacy continues through Pakistani mediation with deadlines into June. Traders view these patterns—high costs of occupation, focus on nuclear and missile objectives, and preference for economic pressure—as strong barriers to a full invasion before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
거래량
$28,546,733종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. policy has prioritized targeted airstrikes, naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and secondary sanctions over any ground invasion of Iran, consistent with the 69.5% market price on “No.” Following the February 2026 start of joint U.S.-Israeli operations and the April ceasefire, the Pentagon has emphasized limited raids and air campaigns while rejecting open-ended ground commitments. Fresh May reports show Iran reconstituting missile launchers under the truce, prompting renewed U.S. strike warnings from President Trump, yet diplomacy continues through Pakistani mediation with deadlines into June. Traders view these patterns—high costs of occupation, focus on nuclear and missile objectives, and preference for economic pressure—as strong barriers to a full invasion before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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