Trader consensus prices a slim 10.5% chance of President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, via executive action or signed legislation attributing payments primarily to tariff revenue, reflecting no such program announcement or implementation 47 days from deadline despite extensive Section 232, 301, and 122 tariffs imposed since January 2025. Trump's May 5 statement distanced from the $2,000-per-household pledge, citing projected tariff revenues falling far short of the $600 billion needed for nationwide payouts, while recent court rulings— including a February Supreme Court decision—have directed refunds to importers via CBP processes starting May 11, not consumer dividends. Absent legislative momentum or new executive orders amid ongoing trade litigation, traders see formidable fiscal and legal barriers persisting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,462 거래량
$11,462 거래량
2026.06.30
$11,462 거래량
$11,462 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a slim 10.5% chance of President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, via executive action or signed legislation attributing payments primarily to tariff revenue, reflecting no such program announcement or implementation 47 days from deadline despite extensive Section 232, 301, and 122 tariffs imposed since January 2025. Trump's May 5 statement distanced from the $2,000-per-household pledge, citing projected tariff revenues falling far short of the $600 billion needed for nationwide payouts, while recent court rulings— including a February Supreme Court decision—have directed refunds to importers via CBP processes starting May 11, not consumer dividends. Absent legislative momentum or new executive orders amid ongoing trade litigation, traders see formidable fiscal and legal barriers persisting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
거래량
$11,462종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a slim 10.5% chance of President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, via executive action or signed legislation attributing payments primarily to tariff revenue, reflecting no such program announcement or implementation 47 days from deadline despite extensive Section 232, 301, and 122 tariffs imposed since January 2025. Trump's May 5 statement distanced from the $2,000-per-household pledge, citing projected tariff revenues falling far short of the $600 billion needed for nationwide payouts, while recent court rulings— including a February Supreme Court decision—have directed refunds to importers via CBP processes starting May 11, not consumer dividends. Absent legislative momentum or new executive orders amid ongoing trade litigation, traders see formidable fiscal and legal barriers persisting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$11,462종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a slim 10.5% chance of President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, via executive action or signed legislation attributing payments primarily to tariff revenue, reflecting no such program announcement or implementation 47 days from deadline despite extensive Section 232, 301, and 122 tariffs imposed since January 2025. Trump's May 5 statement distanced from the $2,000-per-household pledge, citing projected tariff revenues falling far short of the $600 billion needed for nationwide payouts, while recent court rulings— including a February Supreme Court decision—have directed refunds to importers via CBP processes starting May 11, not consumer dividends. Absent legislative momentum or new executive orders amid ongoing trade litigation, traders see formidable fiscal and legal barriers persisting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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