Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks have identified zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield. Continuous radar and optical surveys through mid-2026 have detected only small fireballs well below megaton scale, consistent with the scientific base rate of roughly one such event every several hundred to thousand years. The near-certain consensus stems from these verified monitoring results rather than speculation. Remaining uncertainty centers on the slim chance of a previously undetected small asteroid discovered in the final months, though advancing detection capabilities continue to reduce that window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% szansa
$116,343 Wol.
$116,343 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% szansa
$116,343 Wol.
$116,343 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks have identified zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield. Continuous radar and optical surveys through mid-2026 have detected only small fireballs well below megaton scale, consistent with the scientific base rate of roughly one such event every several hundred to thousand years. The near-certain consensus stems from these verified monitoring results rather than speculation. Remaining uncertainty centers on the slim chance of a previously undetected small asteroid discovered in the final months, though advancing detection capabilities continue to reduce that window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$116,343Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks have identified zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield. Continuous radar and optical surveys through mid-2026 have detected only small fireballs well below megaton scale, consistent with the scientific base rate of roughly one such event every several hundred to thousand years. The near-certain consensus stems from these verified monitoring results rather than speculation. Remaining uncertainty centers on the slim chance of a previously undetected small asteroid discovered in the final months, though advancing detection capabilities continue to reduce that window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$116,343Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.3% probability to no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA planetary defense networks have identified zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield. Continuous radar and optical surveys through mid-2026 have detected only small fireballs well below megaton scale, consistent with the scientific base rate of roughly one such event every several hundred to thousand years. The near-certain consensus stems from these verified monitoring results rather than speculation. Remaining uncertainty centers on the slim chance of a previously undetected small asteroid discovered in the final months, though advancing detection capabilities continue to reduce that window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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