The tight contest for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent April and May 2026 polls from Quaest and other firms showing a statistical tie in first-round intentions around 41 percent to 37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings above 55 percent tied to state investments in education and infrastructure, yet faces headwinds from persistent concerns over public security and shifting municipal alliances. ACM Neto draws strength from independent voters and his alignment with the national right-wing bloc, including support for Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, which has consolidated opposition support in the state. With the October 4 election still months away, campaign momentum, coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in national politics remain the primary variables that could widen the current narrow gap reflected in trader pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 45%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Wol.
$14,079 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
45%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 45%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$14,079 Wol.
$14,079 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
ACM Neto
$3,817 Wol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,895 Wol.
45%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Wol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Wol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Wol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Wol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent April and May 2026 polls from Quaest and other firms showing a statistical tie in first-round intentions around 41 percent to 37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings above 55 percent tied to state investments in education and infrastructure, yet faces headwinds from persistent concerns over public security and shifting municipal alliances. ACM Neto draws strength from independent voters and his alignment with the national right-wing bloc, including support for Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, which has consolidated opposition support in the state. With the October 4 election still months away, campaign momentum, coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in national politics remain the primary variables that could widen the current narrow gap reflected in trader pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,079Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent April and May 2026 polls from Quaest and other firms showing a statistical tie in first-round intentions around 41 percent to 37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings above 55 percent tied to state investments in education and infrastructure, yet faces headwinds from persistent concerns over public security and shifting municipal alliances. ACM Neto draws strength from independent voters and his alignment with the national right-wing bloc, including support for Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, which has consolidated opposition support in the state. With the October 4 election still months away, campaign momentum, coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in national politics remain the primary variables that could widen the current narrow gap reflected in trader pricing.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$14,079Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for Bahia governor reflects a rematch between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT and former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent April and May 2026 polls from Quaest and other firms showing a statistical tie in first-round intentions around 41 percent to 37 percent. Rodrigues benefits from stable approval ratings above 55 percent tied to state investments in education and infrastructure, yet faces headwinds from persistent concerns over public security and shifting municipal alliances. ACM Neto draws strength from independent voters and his alignment with the national right-wing bloc, including support for Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, which has consolidated opposition support in the state. With the October 4 election still months away, campaign momentum, coalition negotiations, and any late shifts in national politics remain the primary variables that could widen the current narrow gap reflected in trader pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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