Recent national surveys show a fragmented field behind frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each drawing low-single-digit support that keeps third-place odds tightly contested. Recent polling momentum for Santos, including stronger youth backing in the AtlasIntel survey, has narrowed his gap with Zema, whose established record as Minas Gerais governor sustains trader interest. Caiado trails on party consolidation but retains viability through center-right positioning. With the first round five months away, potential vote consolidation from smaller candidacies, endorsements by sitting governors, or shifts in economic sentiment could separate the leaders, while the current spread reflects uncertainty over how the remaining opposition vote ultimately distributes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRomeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.4%
$281,596 Wol.
$281,596 Wol.

Romeu Zema
32%

Renan Santos
31%

Ronaldo Caiado
19%

Michelle Bolsonaro
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
3%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Tereza Cristina
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Leite
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema 32%
Renan Santos 31%
Ronaldo Caiado 19%
Michelle Bolsonaro 5.4%
$281,596 Wol.
$281,596 Wol.

Romeu Zema
32%

Renan Santos
31%

Ronaldo Caiado
19%

Michelle Bolsonaro
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Flávio Bolsonaro
3%

Helder Barbalho
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Tereza Cristina
1%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Leite
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Aldo Rebelo
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national surveys show a fragmented field behind frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado each drawing low-single-digit support that keeps third-place odds tightly contested. Recent polling momentum for Santos, including stronger youth backing in the AtlasIntel survey, has narrowed his gap with Zema, whose established record as Minas Gerais governor sustains trader interest. Caiado trails on party consolidation but retains viability through center-right positioning. With the first round five months away, potential vote consolidation from smaller candidacies, endorsements by sitting governors, or shifts in economic sentiment could separate the leaders, while the current spread reflects uncertainty over how the remaining opposition vote ultimately distributes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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