Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.5%
$231,590 Wol.
$231,590 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
16%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
14%
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.5%
$231,590 Wol.
$231,590 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Wol.
3%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Wol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Wol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Wol.
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Wol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Wol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Wol.
16%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,567 Wol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,712 Wol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Wol.
<1%
Other
$2,258 Wol.
14%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$231,590Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$231,590Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls, including Datafolha and Quaest surveys from mid-May 2026, show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical dead heat for October’s first round, with Lula holding narrow leads of roughly 44–46% to Flávio’s 39–40% amid a fragmented field. This closeness, reinforced by similar results in earlier AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual tracking, explains trader emphasis on margins under 5 points for either frontrunner. A fresh leak detailing Flávio Bolsonaro’s communications with a banker tied to major fraud has introduced fresh scrutiny on the right-wing candidate, while Lula’s campaign focuses on economic performance and his bid for a fourth term. These factors keep smaller victory thresholds and alternative candidates such as Renan Santos as prominent scenarios in the run-up to election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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