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CA-04 Primary Winners

icon for CA-04 Primary Winners

CA-04 Primary Winners

$29,989 Wol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$29,989 Wol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$7,192 Wol.

97%

Eric Jones

$4,925 Wol.

90%

Heath Fulkerson

$396 Wol.

11%

John Wesley Tyler

$873 Wol.

9%

Trevor Merrell

$9,889 Wol.

7%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Wol.

4%

Sharon Brown

$3,429 Wol.

2%

Mandy Ghusar

$2,575 Wol.

1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson faces his strongest primary challenge in years from venture capitalist Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2. The district's D+8 partisan lean, reinforced by Proposition 50 redistricting that incorporated additional rural counties while preserving Democratic advantages, sets the stage for both Democrats to advance over a crowded field of six Republicans and one independent. Thompson benefits from 28 years in office, party endorsements, and super PAC support, while Jones leads among challengers through substantial grassroots fundraising from tech donors and a Bernie Sanders endorsement. A splintered Republican vote makes consolidation unlikely, aligning trader consensus with historical patterns favoring incumbents and well-funded opponents in safe Democratic seats. No major polls have emerged recently, but late endorsements or spending could influence the runner-up spot before early voting concludes.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$29,989
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson faces his strongest primary challenge in years from venture capitalist Eric Jones in California's 4th Congressional District top-two primary on June 2. The district's D+8 partisan lean, reinforced by Proposition 50 redistricting that incorporated additional rural counties while preserving Democratic advantages, sets the stage for both Democrats to advance over a crowded field of six Republicans and one independent. Thompson benefits from 28 years in office, party endorsements, and super PAC support, while Jones leads among challengers through substantial grassroots fundraising from tech donors and a Bernie Sanders endorsement. A splintered Republican vote makes consolidation unlikely, aligning trader consensus with historical patterns favoring incumbents and well-funded opponents in safe Democratic seats. No major polls have emerged recently, but late endorsements or spending could influence the runner-up spot before early voting concludes.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$29,989
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Często zadawane pytania

"CA-04 Primary Winners" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 8 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Mike Thompson" z 97%, za nim "Eric Jones" z 90%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 97¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 97% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "CA-04 Primary Winners" wygenerował $30K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 26, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "CA-04 Primary Winners", przeglądaj 8 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "CA-04 Primary Winners" jest "Mike Thompson" z 97%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 97% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Eric Jones" z 90%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "CA-04 Primary Winners" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.