Recent polling has positioned former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra as the clear leader in trader consensus for the June 2 top-two primary, following Democratic rival Eric Swalwell’s exit amid misconduct allegations. Becerra has consolidated support among Democratic voters in the latest Emerson College survey, rising to 19-20 percent overall while Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton trail near 17 percent each. Steyer’s extensive ad spending has produced limited gains amid a fragmented Democratic field, while Hilton and Chad Bianco continue to split Republican preferences. With the primary just weeks away, these shifts explain the current implied probabilities, though late momentum or debate performance could still influence advancement to the November general election.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTom Steyer’s chances decline as Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race
Tom Steyer drops to 32%5%
Market prices show Tom Steyer’s support falling from 37% to 32% while Xavier Becerra’s rises to 51%, indicating shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics ahead of the primary.
Final market prices show Xavier Becerra as frontrunner with 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
By the end of the analysis window, Xavier Becerra held a market price of 51%, solidifying his position as the leading candidate, while other candidates' prices declined significantly, reflecting market consensus on likely election outcome.
Xavier Becerra leads California governor market at 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%10%
By mid-May, Becerra had solidified his lead in the market, reflecting his status as the frontrunner in the race.
Xavier Becerra gains market lead
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%6%
As the field narrowed, Xavier Becerra emerged as a leading candidate in the market's estimation.
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support at 55%
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
Xavier Becerra's market price peaked at 55%, indicating strong market confidence in his chances to win the governorship, likely due to positive campaign developments or polling data.
Steyer’s price drops to 32% after fundraising report shows rivals closing gap
Tom Steyer plunges to 32%23%
A report revealing that Porter and Mahan had raised comparable sums to Steyer caused his price to decline from 55% to 32%, reflecting market concerns over his financial advantage eroding.
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly, reflecting increased support and momentum in the race, possibly due to campaign efforts and shifts after Swalwell's exit.
Tom Steyer’s polling declines after peak, Becerra rises
Tom Steyer plunges to 47%23%
Steyer’s market price dropped from 70% to 47% while Becerra’s rose, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics as the primary approached.
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%24%
Becerra's market price surged from near zero to over 50% as his campaign gained traction late in the analysis window, reflecting increased voter support and campaign activity.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%23%
Following Swalwell's exit, Becerra's market price surged as he absorbed some of the former candidate's support, reflecting renewed voter interest in his candidacy.
Becerra rebounds to 55% after securing major union endorsement
Xavier Becerra jumps to 55%8%
A key labor union endorsement lifted Becerra’s price from 47% to 55%, reviving his momentum heading into the final weeks before the primary.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 39%11%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained traction late in the race, reflected in a significant price increase, as he consolidated support from former Swalwell backers and positioned himself as a leading Democratic candidate.
Xavier Becerra's campaign surges ahead in final weeks before primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 41%13%
Becerra's price rose sharply, reflecting increased support and campaign momentum as the primary approached.
Steyer’s price falls after poll shows Porter closing gap
Tom Steyer drops to 47%12%
A new poll indicated Porter narrowing the gap with Steyer, pulling Steyer’s price down from 59% to 47% as the market reassessed the race dynamics.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race ahead of primary
Xavier Becerra surges to 47%19%
Becerra's market price surged as he gained traction in the crowded Democratic field, benefiting from Swalwell's exit and consolidating moderate support.
Becerra’s price slips after controversy over former chief of staff’s indictment
Xavier Becerra plunges to 28%15%
News of a former chief of staff’s federal corruption indictment caused Becerra’s price to fall from 43% to 28%, tempering the earlier surge.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton's profile among Republican voters, briefly increasing his market price, though it remained low overall.
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Xavier Becerra's support surges in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply from near zero to over 27%, reflecting increased polling support or campaign momentum, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events boosting his profile.
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%28%
Becerra's market price surged significantly, possibly due to campaign developments or endorsements, marking a recovery from earlier lows.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 37%13%
The withdrawal of a major candidate following sexual assault allegations caused significant market reordering.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market prices for Democratic candidates.
Xavier Becerra surges in polls amid Democratic field uncertainty
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra’s market price rose sharply as he gained traction late in the primary season, capitalizing on the fragmented Democratic vote and Swalwell’s exit.
Becerra’s price jumps to 43% after high‑profile debate performance
Xavier Becerra surges to 43%16%
Following a televised debate where Becerra outperformed rivals, his price surged from 27% to 43%, reflecting voter optimism about his debate showing.
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%9%
Trump's endorsement of Hilton, a Republican candidate, provided a boost to Hilton's campaign and market price, energizing conservative voters and increasing his visibility in the race.
Poll shows Xavier Becerra surging after late‑stage endorsement
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
A late‑April poll gave Becerra a surprising boost, moving his price from 0% to 27% as voters reconsidered his experience amid a fragmented field.
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price positively despite the crowded field.
Tom Steyer peaks in polling after heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Steyer’s market price surged to a peak of 70% reflecting his dominant ad campaign and perceived frontrunner status in the Democratic field.
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 59%43%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, causing a significant price jump in the market, though he did not secure a clear lead.
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, boosting Hilton's profile and market price in the governor's race, especially among Republican voters.
Tom Steyer's ad blitz peaks, boosting his polling numbers
Tom Steyer surges to 70%54%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads led to a peak in his market price, reflecting increased voter attention and support during this period.
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats feared their large number of candidates could split votes, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in the top-two primary system, impacting market prices for GOP candidates.
Tom Steyer's polling peaks amid heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%50%
Tom Steyer's polling surged to a peak of 70% following his extensive advertising campaign, marking his highest market price. However, this peak was short-lived as subsequent events and competition tempered his lead.
Tom Steyer campaign surges in market
Tom Steyer surges to 70%44%
Heavy advertising spending by Tom Steyer led to a significant increase in his market price.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 58%42%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, temporarily boosting his market price despite a crowded field and no clear frontrunner emerging.
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 59%41%
Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and chances, dominating media presence and influencing market prices despite criticism of trying to buy the election.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 49%31%
Steyer's unprecedented spending on ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a top contender despite no prior elected office experience.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan plunges to 17%29%
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, gaining initial market attention but later losing ground as the race evolved.
Polling shows tight race among Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco
Late winter polling indicated a close contest among Democratic candidates Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting market volatility and uncertainty.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Tom Steyer ramps up spending in California governor race
Tom Steyer rises to 20%2%
Billionaire Tom Steyer increased his campaign spending dramatically, saturating media markets with ads, which boosted his polling and market price despite not breaking away as a clear frontrunner.
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, causing a sharp collapse in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates, notably benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends campaign
Xavier Becerra dips to 0%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading him to suspend his gubernatorial bid and later resign from Congress, causing his market price to plummet to near zero.
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Steyer’s ad spend peaks, TV buys hit $115 million
Tom Steyer surges to 59%37%
The release of a spending report confirming $115 million in ad buys reinforced Steyer’s financial dominance, pushing his price up from 22% to 59% in a single week.
California Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election under California's top-two primary system. This raised the profile of Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, affecting their market prices.
Eric Swalwell withdraws amid sexual‑assault allegations
Tom Steyer dips to 22%2%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, causing his own price to collapse and shifting support to Steyer and Porter, which helped Steyer’s price dip slightly while Porter’s fell modestly.
Matt Mahan campaign gains momentum
Matt Mahan surges to 54%35%
Market confidence in Mahan surged following early campaign activities and media attention.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom on homelessness and crime, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market dynamics.
Rep. Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor's race amid sexual assault allegations
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, which he denies, and announced his resignation from Congress. His exit reshaped the Democratic field, allowing rivals like Steyer and Porter to vie for his supporters, impacting market prices for those candidates.
Matt Mahan campaign faces initial volatility
Matt Mahan plunges to 9%37%
Following his entry, the market adjusted expectations for Mahan's candidacy, leading to a significant price drop.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, initially gaining some market support but later declining as the race evolved.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan announced his candidacy positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, briefly impacting his market price before declining.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, which introduced a new contender and influenced market prices for his outcome.
Poll shows Tom Steyer leading Democratic field
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%8%
A Public Policy Institute of California poll placed Steyer ahead of Porter and Becerra, prompting a sharp price rise from 16% to 24% as the market reacted to the perceived front‑runner status.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan joins California governor race
Matt Mahan entered the race as a moderate Democrat, adding further complexity to the crowded field.
Katie Porter announces candidacy for governor
Katie Porter surges to 19%19%
Porter’s entry added a high‑profile progressive to the field, lifting her price from 0% to 19% as she captured attention from liberal voters.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, joins the governor’s race
Matt Mahan surges to 17%17%
Mahan’s entry gave a moderate Democrat a platform, causing his price to rise sharply from 0% to 17% as he attracted voters dissatisfied with Newsom’s policies.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor's race
Tom Steyer began spending heavily on TV and radio ads, outspending rivals by a large margin to boost his profile in the Democratic primary. This spending spree raised his polling numbers but did not establish him as a clear frontrunner, affecting market prices for his candidacy.
Tom Steyer begins heavy ad spending in California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer started a massive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his candidacy, which increased his market price significantly.
Chad Bianco files paperwork to run for governor
Chad Bianco rises to 1%1%
The Riverside County sheriff’s entry added a Republican option, pulling a small share of votes from the Democratic pool and nudging his price upward from 0% to 1% as the field widened.
Steve Hilton receives endorsement from former President Donald Trump
Steve Hilton jumps to 14%8%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a surge of national attention, lifting his price from single digits to a brief peak of 14% before settling back near 9% as the novelty faded.
Tom Steyer launches billionaire‑funded advertising blitz
Tom Steyer jumps to 24%6%
Steyer disclosed spending over $115 million on TV and digital ads, causing his price to jump from the low‑teens to double‑digits as voters perceived a serious contender.
Xavier Becerra announces candidacy for California governor
Xavier Becerra jumps to 5%5%
Becerra entered the race, giving the former health secretary a baseline of support that lifted his price from near‑zero to 5% as voters registered his name among many Democrats.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Market reacts to crowded field and uncertainty
Xavier Becerra plunges to 7%43%
The market experienced a sharp correction across multiple candidates as the reality of a crowded primary field set in.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan, known for his moderate Democratic stance and criticism of Governor Newsom, entered the crowded governor's race, positioning himself as a fighter on homelessness and crime. His entry added a new dynamic to the Democratic field and influenced market perceptions of his chances.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces his bid for California governor
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for governor, immediately impacting the market as a major Democratic contender.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Eric Swalwell, a Democrat and former House manager in Trump's impeachment trial, announced his candidacy for California governor, initially boosting his profile and impacting the market by adding a prominent contender.
Billionaire Tom Steyer begins massive ad spending in governor race
Steyer used his personal fortune to saturate media with ads, becoming the top spender and a leading Democratic candidate, impacting his polling and market price.
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