Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$357,061 Wol.
$357,061 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$357,061 Wol.
$357,061 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$357,061Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$357,061Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent maritime incidents in the South China Sea, including recent accusations over landings at Sandy Cay and a floating barrier installed at Scarborough Shoal in April 2026, trader sentiment heavily favors no military clash between China and the Philippines before 2027. Both governments have sustained diplomatic channels, including bilateral maritime talks and renewed discussions on joint oil and gas exploration prompted by the 2026 global energy shock. Manila’s participation in expanded Balikatan exercises with U.S. and allied forces has coincided with efforts to avoid direct confrontation, while provisional resupply arrangements at Second Thomas Shoal remain in place. These developments, alongside institutional commitments to a Code of Conduct, signal continued preference for managed competition over escalation through the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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