Cepeda leads recent polls at 34-44% but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff, reflecting strong but not overwhelming support from the incumbent left-wing coalition and younger voters. The fragmented right-wing vote—split primarily between de la Espriella at 20-28% and Valencia at 20-23%—has kept first-round margins narrow, with traders pricing the 10-15% band highest as the likeliest outcome ahead of the May 31 vote. Pre-election violence and conservative infighting have reinforced this positioning without shifting broad polling trends. A late consolidation behind one right-wing candidate or a surge in undecided voters could widen or narrow Cepeda's edge before ballots close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 14.5%
$14,673 Wol.
$14,673 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
13%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
14%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 31%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 14.5%
$14,673 Wol.
$14,673 Wol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,760 Wol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,194 Wol.
13%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,060 Wol.
37%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,074 Wol.
31%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,204 Wol.
14%
de la Espriella Win
$4,078 Wol.
15%
Valencia Win
$2,253 Wol.
1%
Other
$2,049 Wol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cepeda leads recent polls at 34-44% but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff, reflecting strong but not overwhelming support from the incumbent left-wing coalition and younger voters. The fragmented right-wing vote—split primarily between de la Espriella at 20-28% and Valencia at 20-23%—has kept first-round margins narrow, with traders pricing the 10-15% band highest as the likeliest outcome ahead of the May 31 vote. Pre-election violence and conservative infighting have reinforced this positioning without shifting broad polling trends. A late consolidation behind one right-wing candidate or a surge in undecided voters could widen or narrow Cepeda's edge before ballots close.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,673Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Cepeda leads recent polls at 34-44% but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff, reflecting strong but not overwhelming support from the incumbent left-wing coalition and younger voters. The fragmented right-wing vote—split primarily between de la Espriella at 20-28% and Valencia at 20-23%—has kept first-round margins narrow, with traders pricing the 10-15% band highest as the likeliest outcome ahead of the May 31 vote. Pre-election violence and conservative infighting have reinforced this positioning without shifting broad polling trends. A late consolidation behind one right-wing candidate or a surge in undecided voters could widen or narrow Cepeda's edge before ballots close.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$14,673Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cepeda leads recent polls at 34-44% but falls short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff, reflecting strong but not overwhelming support from the incumbent left-wing coalition and younger voters. The fragmented right-wing vote—split primarily between de la Espriella at 20-28% and Valencia at 20-23%—has kept first-round margins narrow, with traders pricing the 10-15% band highest as the likeliest outcome ahead of the May 31 vote. Pre-election violence and conservative infighting have reinforced this positioning without shifting broad polling trends. A late consolidation behind one right-wing candidate or a surge in undecided voters could widen or narrow Cepeda's edge before ballots close.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania