Recent polling averages show Marine Le Pen commanding a wide first-round lead near 35 percent, leaving the contest for second and third places open among Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann and several others. Centrist infighting between Philippe and Gabriel Attal has fragmented moderate support, allowing Mélenchon to edge ahead for second place in late-October surveys while Glucksmann’s post-primary gains have moderated. This dispersion keeps probabilities for third place closely matched, with traders pricing Philippe, Glucksmann and David Lisnard as the most plausible finishers. Upcoming candidate declarations, primary resolutions and any consolidation among center-right or left blocs could shift vote shares and alter the ordering before the April 2027 first round.