Current forecast consensus from European and global models points to a high of 30–32°C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly flow that favors daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs near 26°C can be exceeded by several degrees during stable anticyclonic patterns, yet fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–33°C because model runs show modest spread in peak temperature tied to exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing. New AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 21?
32°C 68%
33°C 22%
31°C 16%
34°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
16%
32°C
68%
33°C
22%
34°C
11%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
4%
32°C 68%
33°C 22%
31°C 16%
34°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 21, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Wol.
3%
27°C
$0 Wol.
5%
28°C
$0 Wol.
4%
29°C
$0 Wol.
4%
30°C
$0 Wol.
6%
31°C
$0 Wol.
16%
32°C
$145 Wol.
68%
33°C
$0 Wol.
22%
34°C
$0 Wol.
11%
35°C
$0 Wol.
5%
36°C or higher
$0 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from European and global models points to a high of 30–32°C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly flow that favors daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs near 26°C can be exceeded by several degrees during stable anticyclonic patterns, yet fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–33°C because model runs show modest spread in peak temperature tied to exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing. New AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$145Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from European and global models points to a high of 30–32°C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly flow that favors daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs near 26°C can be exceeded by several degrees during stable anticyclonic patterns, yet fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–33°C because model runs show modest spread in peak temperature tied to exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing. New AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$145Data zakończenia
Sep 21, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from European and global models points to a high of 30–32°C in Madrid on September 21 under clear skies, high pressure, and light southerly flow that favors daytime radiative heating without significant cloud cover or advection of cooler air. These conditions align with late-September climatology, where average highs near 26°C can be exceeded by several degrees during stable anticyclonic patterns, yet fall short of extreme heatwave thresholds. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 30–33°C because model runs show modest spread in peak temperature tied to exact timing of maximum insolation and boundary-layer mixing. New AEMET and ECMWF updates expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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