The market-implied odds favor a 25°C high primarily because the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecast for September 19 projects a maximum of 25–27°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This aligns with ensemble guidance from global models indicating modest daytime heating at Mexico City’s high elevation, where seasonal September averages near 24–25°C and frequent cloud cover plus northerly winds typically cap peaks. Recent observations show slightly above-normal temperatures earlier in the month, yet the current pattern of moisture and limited insolation supports trader consensus around 25°C rather than a stronger push toward 26°C or higher. Updated official briefings and model runs through the evening of September 18 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 19?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 19?
25°C 53%
26°C or higher 30%
24°C 15%
23°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
2%
23°C
4%
24°C
15%
25°C
53%
26°C or higher
30%
25°C 53%
26°C or higher 30%
24°C 15%
23°C 4%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 19, 2026
16°C or below
$31 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$31 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$58 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$143 Wol.
1%
22°C
$519 Wol.
2%
23°C
$157 Wol.
4%
24°C
$565 Wol.
15%
25°C
$1,114 Wol.
53%
26°C or higher
$582 Wol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds favor a 25°C high primarily because the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecast for September 19 projects a maximum of 25–27°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This aligns with ensemble guidance from global models indicating modest daytime heating at Mexico City’s high elevation, where seasonal September averages near 24–25°C and frequent cloud cover plus northerly winds typically cap peaks. Recent observations show slightly above-normal temperatures earlier in the month, yet the current pattern of moisture and limited insolation supports trader consensus around 25°C rather than a stronger push toward 26°C or higher. Updated official briefings and model runs through the evening of September 18 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,256Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds favor a 25°C high primarily because the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecast for September 19 projects a maximum of 25–27°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This aligns with ensemble guidance from global models indicating modest daytime heating at Mexico City’s high elevation, where seasonal September averages near 24–25°C and frequent cloud cover plus northerly winds typically cap peaks. Recent observations show slightly above-normal temperatures earlier in the month, yet the current pattern of moisture and limited insolation supports trader consensus around 25°C rather than a stronger push toward 26°C or higher. Updated official briefings and model runs through the evening of September 18 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,256Data zakończenia
Sep 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds favor a 25°C high primarily because the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional forecast for September 19 projects a maximum of 25–27°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This aligns with ensemble guidance from global models indicating modest daytime heating at Mexico City’s high elevation, where seasonal September averages near 24–25°C and frequent cloud cover plus northerly winds typically cap peaks. Recent observations show slightly above-normal temperatures earlier in the month, yet the current pattern of moisture and limited insolation supports trader consensus around 25°C rather than a stronger push toward 26°C or higher. Updated official briefings and model runs through the evening of September 18 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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