President Donald Trump’s approval rating has trended downward through the first half of 2026, currently averaging in the mid-to-high 30s across major polls, with net approval near historic second-term lows of around -20. The dominant factor is the U.S.-led military campaign against Iran that began in late February, which has driven sharp increases in gasoline prices and broader cost-of-living pressures while drawing sustained public criticism of foreign-policy handling. Recent surveys from Reuters/Ipsos, Washington Post-ABC, and Pew show declining confidence on the economy and Iran specifically, with even some erosion among Republican respondents. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026, combined with any potential de-escalation in the Middle East or legislative progress on domestic priorities, remain the principal near-term catalysts that could influence whether ratings rebound or continue to face downward pressure.