Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
190-209 41%
170-189 34%
230+ 9%
210-229 8%
NOWE
$22,305 Wol.
NOWE
$22,305 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
7%
170-189
34%
190-209
41%
210-229
8%
230+
9%
190-209 41%
170-189 34%
230+ 9%
210-229 8%
NOWE
$22,305 Wol.
NOWE
$22,305 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$76 Wol.
7%
170-189
$116 Wol.
34%
190-209
$280 Wol.
41%
210-229
$8,925 Wol.
8%
230+
$12,908 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$22,305Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$22,305Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi enforcement of a Saudi-linked shipping blockade, including the August 24 strike on tanker Amzan, has kept war-risk premiums elevated above 1% of hull value and prompted selective carrier caution despite partial Suez recoveries by Maersk, MSC, and others. Weekly Bab el-Mandeb AIS transits have stabilized near 223–269 vessels in mid-to-late August, with container flows holding firmer than tankers, which fell sharply after the July 20 declaration. This mix of modest volume rebound, rising dark transits, and ongoing geopolitical friction produces tightly contested market-implied odds between the 170–189 and 190–209 bins. Traders are weighing whether incremental carrier routing gains can offset tanker weakness and any fresh attacks before the resolution window closes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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