The April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, centered on cost overruns for the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and his June 2025 congressional testimony, remains the dominant factor anchoring low market-implied odds of federal charges by year-end. A federal judge quashed related grand jury subpoenas for lack of evidence beyond policy disputes, and no new referrals, inspector general findings, or prosecutorial activity have surfaced since. Powell transitioned from Chair in May 2026 to a Board governor role through 2028, benefiting from institutional norms shielding central bank officials from politically driven actions. With monetary policy independence and the absence of fresh regulatory or executive catalysts, traders assign limited probability to indictment absent substantial new facts.