President Trump's August 5 letter renewing efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage fraud allegations—giving her until August 26 to respond—remains the dominant catalyst behind low market-implied odds of her departure by year-end. The June 2026 Supreme Court ruling preserved her position during ongoing litigation, underscoring limits on at-will presidential authority under the Federal Reserve Act and reinforcing institutional independence. Traders assign minimal probabilities (under 10% for December 31) amid legal uncertainty, potential appeals, and the Fed's role in monetary policy, where any vacancy could influence FOMC voting and rate expectations. Upcoming catalysts include the response deadline, further court rulings, and September FOMC deliberations that could test sentiment around central bank autonomy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
Nov 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
3%
November 30
5%
December 31
7%
$4,656 Wol.
September 30
$1,246 Wol.
2%
October 31
$1,236 Wol.
3%
November 30
$939 Wol.
5%
December 31
$1,235 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump's August 5 letter renewing efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage fraud allegations—giving her until August 26 to respond—remains the dominant catalyst behind low market-implied odds of her departure by year-end. The June 2026 Supreme Court ruling preserved her position during ongoing litigation, underscoring limits on at-will presidential authority under the Federal Reserve Act and reinforcing institutional independence. Traders assign minimal probabilities (under 10% for December 31) amid legal uncertainty, potential appeals, and the Fed's role in monetary policy, where any vacancy could influence FOMC voting and rate expectations. Upcoming catalysts include the response deadline, further court rulings, and September FOMC deliberations that could test sentiment around central bank autonomy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$4,656Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.President Trump's August 5 letter renewing efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage fraud allegations—giving her until August 26 to respond—remains the dominant catalyst behind low market-implied odds of her departure by year-end. The June 2026 Supreme Court ruling preserved her position during ongoing litigation, underscoring limits on at-will presidential authority under the Federal Reserve Act and reinforcing institutional independence. Traders assign minimal probabilities (under 10% for December 31) amid legal uncertainty, potential appeals, and the Fed's role in monetary policy, where any vacancy could influence FOMC voting and rate expectations. Upcoming catalysts include the response deadline, further court rulings, and September FOMC deliberations that could test sentiment around central bank autonomy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Wolumen
$4,656Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's August 5 letter renewing efforts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over 2021 mortgage fraud allegations—giving her until August 26 to respond—remains the dominant catalyst behind low market-implied odds of her departure by year-end. The June 2026 Supreme Court ruling preserved her position during ongoing litigation, underscoring limits on at-will presidential authority under the Federal Reserve Act and reinforcing institutional independence. Traders assign minimal probabilities (under 10% for December 31) amid legal uncertainty, potential appeals, and the Fed's role in monetary policy, where any vacancy could influence FOMC voting and rate expectations. Upcoming catalysts include the response deadline, further court rulings, and September FOMC deliberations that could test sentiment around central bank autonomy.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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