Recent forecasts for Moscow indicate overnight lows around 10–13°C under variable cloudiness and light southerly or easterly winds shifting from a northerly flow, with some models showing potential for clearer skies and enhanced radiative cooling that could push localized readings lower. This uncertainty—driven by exact timing of cloud breaks, dew point depression, and whether the official station minimum falls into single digits or remains milder—explains the near-even split between the 13°C-or-higher outcome and colder thresholds. Historical late-August climatology supports typical minima near 12°C, but current anticyclonic influence and model spread on boundary-layer mixing create the balanced trader positioning ahead of final observations.