**Current USDM data (valid August 25, 2026) show limited D4 (Exceptional Drought) coverage, concentrated in a few states such as Arkansas (~1% of area), Idaho (~8%), and smaller pockets in Nebraska, Colorado, and parts of the Southern Plains or Intermountain West, amid broader D1–D3 expansion driven by persistent heat and dryness.** The week-of-September-1 map, based on conditions through early September, faces a short window where continued excessive heat and below-normal precipitation in the south-central U.S. could drive localized intensification toward D4 thresholds in additional Plains or Midwest states. Offsetting this are active monsoon convection favoring relief in the Southwest and early El Niño influences (strengthening toward a very strong event) that typically enhance precipitation in parts of the region while suppressing it elsewhere. Model consensus and rapid-onset drought risk signals create genuine uncertainty around the exact number of states crossing into D4, with the next USDM release and updated short-term forecasts serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 1, 2026?
10 or more states 44%
7-9 states 40%
5-6 states 38%
0 states 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
26%
1-2 states
26%
3-4 states
26%
5-6 states
38%
7-9 states
40%
10 or more states
44%
10 or more states 44%
7-9 states 40%
5-6 states 38%
0 states 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
0 states
$1 Wol.
26%
1-2 states
$0 Wol.
26%
3-4 states
$1 Wol.
26%
5-6 states
$0 Wol.
38%
7-9 states
$1 Wol.
40%
10 or more states
$0 Wol.
44%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Current USDM data (valid August 25, 2026) show limited D4 (Exceptional Drought) coverage, concentrated in a few states such as Arkansas (~1% of area), Idaho (~8%), and smaller pockets in Nebraska, Colorado, and parts of the Southern Plains or Intermountain West, amid broader D1–D3 expansion driven by persistent heat and dryness.**
The week-of-September-1 map, based on conditions through early September, faces a short window where continued excessive heat and below-normal precipitation in the south-central U.S. could drive localized intensification toward D4 thresholds in additional Plains or Midwest states. Offsetting this are active monsoon convection favoring relief in the Southwest and early El Niño influences (strengthening toward a very strong event) that typically enhance precipitation in parts of the region while suppressing it elsewhere. Model consensus and rapid-onset drought risk signals create genuine uncertainty around the exact number of states crossing into D4, with the next USDM release and updated short-term forecasts serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$3Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Current USDM data (valid August 25, 2026) show limited D4 (Exceptional Drought) coverage, concentrated in a few states such as Arkansas (~1% of area), Idaho (~8%), and smaller pockets in Nebraska, Colorado, and parts of the Southern Plains or Intermountain West, amid broader D1–D3 expansion driven by persistent heat and dryness.**
The week-of-September-1 map, based on conditions through early September, faces a short window where continued excessive heat and below-normal precipitation in the south-central U.S. could drive localized intensification toward D4 thresholds in additional Plains or Midwest states. Offsetting this are active monsoon convection favoring relief in the Southwest and early El Niño influences (strengthening toward a very strong event) that typically enhance precipitation in parts of the region while suppressing it elsewhere. Model consensus and rapid-onset drought risk signals create genuine uncertainty around the exact number of states crossing into D4, with the next USDM release and updated short-term forecasts serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Wolumen
$3Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Current USDM data (valid August 25, 2026) show limited D4 (Exceptional Drought) coverage, concentrated in a few states such as Arkansas (~1% of area), Idaho (~8%), and smaller pockets in Nebraska, Colorado, and parts of the Southern Plains or Intermountain West, amid broader D1–D3 expansion driven by persistent heat and dryness.** The week-of-September-1 map, based on conditions through early September, faces a short window where continued excessive heat and below-normal precipitation in the south-central U.S. could drive localized intensification toward D4 thresholds in additional Plains or Midwest states. Offsetting this are active monsoon convection favoring relief in the Southwest and early El Niño influences (strengthening toward a very strong event) that typically enhance precipitation in parts of the region while suppressing it elsewhere. Model consensus and rapid-onset drought risk signals create genuine uncertainty around the exact number of states crossing into D4, with the next USDM release and updated short-term forecasts serving as key near-term catalysts for shifts in market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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