Recent model consensus from sources including China's Central Meteorological Observatory points to a minimum temperature near 20–22°C in Wuhan on September 3, following a cooling shift driven by typhoon peripheral flows and associated rainfall through early September that eased prior heat. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread tied to variable cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, keeping most runs within a 3–4°C range around the expected low. This genuine uncertainty across temperature bins near 20–25°C aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds, while the elevated probability on 27°C or higher may reflect residual trader caution over potential forecast revisions closer to the date. Updated runs from global and regional models in the coming 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 3?
27°C or higher 69%
17°C or below 59%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
59%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
25%
25°C
25%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
69%
27°C or higher 69%
17°C or below 59%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Wol.
59%
18°C
$5 Wol.
19%
19°C
$5 Wol.
19%
20°C
$0 Wol.
25%
21°C
$0 Wol.
25%
22°C
$0 Wol.
26%
23°C
$0 Wol.
26%
24°C
$0 Wol.
25%
25°C
$0 Wol.
25%
26°C
$5 Wol.
2%
27°C or higher
$5 Wol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including China's Central Meteorological Observatory points to a minimum temperature near 20–22°C in Wuhan on September 3, following a cooling shift driven by typhoon peripheral flows and associated rainfall through early September that eased prior heat. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread tied to variable cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, keeping most runs within a 3–4°C range around the expected low. This genuine uncertainty across temperature bins near 20–25°C aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds, while the elevated probability on 27°C or higher may reflect residual trader caution over potential forecast revisions closer to the date. Updated runs from global and regional models in the coming 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$25Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including China's Central Meteorological Observatory points to a minimum temperature near 20–22°C in Wuhan on September 3, following a cooling shift driven by typhoon peripheral flows and associated rainfall through early September that eased prior heat. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread tied to variable cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, keeping most runs within a 3–4°C range around the expected low. This genuine uncertainty across temperature bins near 20–25°C aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds, while the elevated probability on 27°C or higher may reflect residual trader caution over potential forecast revisions closer to the date. Updated runs from global and regional models in the coming 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$25Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources including China's Central Meteorological Observatory points to a minimum temperature near 20–22°C in Wuhan on September 3, following a cooling shift driven by typhoon peripheral flows and associated rainfall through early September that eased prior heat. Ensemble forecasts show modest spread tied to variable cloud cover, northeasterly winds, and overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies, keeping most runs within a 3–4°C range around the expected low. This genuine uncertainty across temperature bins near 20–25°C aligns with the closely matched market-implied odds, while the elevated probability on 27°C or higher may reflect residual trader caution over potential forecast revisions closer to the date. Updated runs from global and regional models in the coming 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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