Grace Meng's dominant 90.5% implied probability in the NY-06 Democratic primary market stems from her strong incumbency advantage as the longtime representative of this heavily Democratic Queens district, encompassing Flushing and Elmhurst, where she has won prior primaries by wide margins since 2012. Recent activity, including her May 6 PoliticsNY Q&A and May 11 introduction of the SAFE CHECK-INS FOR IMMIGRANTS Act, underscores her visibility and institutional backing like NYSUT's endorsement, while progressive challenger Charles Park's grassroots canvassing and local nods like the 504 Democratic Club have not translated to polling traction ahead of the June 23 closed primary. Minor candidate Yan Xiong lags far behind. Late-breaking scenarios such as a Meng scandal, health issue, or surge in progressive turnout could challenge this consensus, though incumbents historically prevail decisively.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrace Meng 91%
Charles Park 4.9%
Yan Xiong <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 23, 2026
Grace Meng
91%
Charles Park
5%
Yan Xiong
<1%
Grace Meng 91%
Charles Park 4.9%
Yan Xiong <1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jun 23, 2026
Grace Meng
$687 Wol.
91%
Charles Park
$520 Wol.
5%
Yan Xiong
$736 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Grace Meng's dominant 90.5% implied probability in the NY-06 Democratic primary market stems from her strong incumbency advantage as the longtime representative of this heavily Democratic Queens district, encompassing Flushing and Elmhurst, where she has won prior primaries by wide margins since 2012. Recent activity, including her May 6 PoliticsNY Q&A and May 11 introduction of the SAFE CHECK-INS FOR IMMIGRANTS Act, underscores her visibility and institutional backing like NYSUT's endorsement, while progressive challenger Charles Park's grassroots canvassing and local nods like the 504 Democratic Club have not translated to polling traction ahead of the June 23 closed primary. Minor candidate Yan Xiong lags far behind. Late-breaking scenarios such as a Meng scandal, health issue, or surge in progressive turnout could challenge this consensus, though incumbents historically prevail decisively.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 19, 2025, 3:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,943Data zakończenia
Jun 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 19, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Grace Meng's dominant 90.5% implied probability in the NY-06 Democratic primary market stems from her strong incumbency advantage as the longtime representative of this heavily Democratic Queens district, encompassing Flushing and Elmhurst, where she has won prior primaries by wide margins since 2012. Recent activity, including her May 6 PoliticsNY Q&A and May 11 introduction of the SAFE CHECK-INS FOR IMMIGRANTS Act, underscores her visibility and institutional backing like NYSUT's endorsement, while progressive challenger Charles Park's grassroots canvassing and local nods like the 504 Democratic Club have not translated to polling traction ahead of the June 23 closed primary. Minor candidate Yan Xiong lags far behind. Late-breaking scenarios such as a Meng scandal, health issue, or surge in progressive turnout could challenge this consensus, though incumbents historically prevail decisively.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$1,943Data zakończenia
Jun 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 19, 2025, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Grace Meng's dominant 90.5% implied probability in the NY-06 Democratic primary market stems from her strong incumbency advantage as the longtime representative of this heavily Democratic Queens district, encompassing Flushing and Elmhurst, where she has won prior primaries by wide margins since 2012. Recent activity, including her May 6 PoliticsNY Q&A and May 11 introduction of the SAFE CHECK-INS FOR IMMIGRANTS Act, underscores her visibility and institutional backing like NYSUT's endorsement, while progressive challenger Charles Park's grassroots canvassing and local nods like the 504 Democratic Club have not translated to polling traction ahead of the June 23 closed primary. Minor candidate Yan Xiong lags far behind. Late-breaking scenarios such as a Meng scandal, health issue, or surge in progressive turnout could challenge this consensus, though incumbents historically prevail decisively.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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