Anthony Constantino holds a commanding position in the NY-21 House race market following the November 3, 2026 general election, where preliminary results showed him leading Democrat Blake Gendebien by roughly 6,000 votes or about two points with nearly all precincts reporting. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik, sits in a historically Republican district that favored Trump by more than 20 points in 2024. Constantino secured the GOP nomination decisively in June with President Trump's endorsement and self-funded heavily, while Gendebien, a local dairy farmer, ran a competitive moderate campaign that narrowed the gap in some polls but fell short on election night. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the completed vote count and limited remaining ballots. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final certification disputes, a successful recount in close counties, or unforeseen legal challenges to specific precinct results.