President Lee Jae-myung’s sustained approval near 60 percent and the Democratic Party’s structural advantages in candidate recruitment and regional strongholds have positioned the party to dominate the concurrent June 3 by-elections for at least 14 National Assembly seats. Traders assign 77 percent implied probability to 10 or more DP wins, reflecting expectations that the ruling party’s momentum from the 2025 presidential victory and ongoing local-election sweep will translate into broad gains across the contested districts. Recent unification agreements with smaller progressive partners and the absence of major opposition breakthroughs have reinforced this outlook, though isolated missteps by party leader Jung Chung-rae and competitive races in southeastern strongholds could still trim margins. Historical precedent of ruling-party by-election performance under unified government further supports the current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
# of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?
10+ 80.7%
8-9 12.3%
2-3 <1%
0-1 <1%
$34,584 Wol.
$34,584 Wol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
<1%
2-3
<1%
4-5
<1%
6-7
<1%
8-9
12%
10+
77%
10+ 80.7%
8-9 12.3%
2-3 <1%
0-1 <1%
$34,584 Wol.
$34,584 Wol.
Jun 3, 2026
0-1
$3,928 Wol.
<1%
2-3
$5,328 Wol.
<1%
4-5
$3,763 Wol.
<1%
6-7
$3,754 Wol.
<1%
8-9
$4,426 Wol.
12%
10+
$13,385 Wol.
77%
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.President Lee Jae-myung’s sustained approval near 60 percent and the Democratic Party’s structural advantages in candidate recruitment and regional strongholds have positioned the party to dominate the concurrent June 3 by-elections for at least 14 National Assembly seats. Traders assign 77 percent implied probability to 10 or more DP wins, reflecting expectations that the ruling party’s momentum from the 2025 presidential victory and ongoing local-election sweep will translate into broad gains across the contested districts. Recent unification agreements with smaller progressive partners and the absence of major opposition breakthroughs have reinforced this outlook, though isolated missteps by party leader Jung Chung-rae and competitive races in southeastern strongholds could still trim margins. Historical precedent of ruling-party by-election performance under unified government further supports the current pricing.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$34,584Data zakończenia
Jun 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.President Lee Jae-myung’s sustained approval near 60 percent and the Democratic Party’s structural advantages in candidate recruitment and regional strongholds have positioned the party to dominate the concurrent June 3 by-elections for at least 14 National Assembly seats. Traders assign 77 percent implied probability to 10 or more DP wins, reflecting expectations that the ruling party’s momentum from the 2025 presidential victory and ongoing local-election sweep will translate into broad gains across the contested districts. Recent unification agreements with smaller progressive partners and the absence of major opposition breakthroughs have reinforced this outlook, though isolated missteps by party leader Jung Chung-rae and competitive races in southeastern strongholds could still trim margins. Historical precedent of ruling-party by-election performance under unified government further supports the current pricing.
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026.
Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market.
If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do).
Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
Wolumen
$34,584Data zakończenia
Jun 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 12, 2026, 4:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...President Lee Jae-myung’s sustained approval near 60 percent and the Democratic Party’s structural advantages in candidate recruitment and regional strongholds have positioned the party to dominate the concurrent June 3 by-elections for at least 14 National Assembly seats. Traders assign 77 percent implied probability to 10 or more DP wins, reflecting expectations that the ruling party’s momentum from the 2025 presidential victory and ongoing local-election sweep will translate into broad gains across the contested districts. Recent unification agreements with smaller progressive partners and the absence of major opposition breakthroughs have reinforced this outlook, though isolated missteps by party leader Jung Chung-rae and competitive races in southeastern strongholds could still trim margins. Historical precedent of ruling-party by-election performance under unified government further supports the current pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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