Hong Kong’s August rainfall totals hinge on the balance between persistent monsoon trough activity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and the timing or tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. With only about 125 mm recorded through early August against a long-term average near 400 mm, traders are weighting the likelihood of near-normal accumulation for the full month. Official seasonal guidance points to near-normal rainfall overall, yet El Niño development introduces variability by potentially enhancing storm intensity while altering steering patterns. Key differentiators among the closely bunched 450–525 mm outcomes include the number of landfalling or nearby typhoons in the remaining weeks and the strength of southwesterly monsoon flows, both of which can add or subtract 100–200 mm rapidly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
550-600mm 27.8%
525-550mm 26.8%
650-700mm 19%
<425mm 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
28%
425-450mm
13%
450-475mm
31%
475-500mm
25%
500-525mm
34%
525-550mm
27%
550-600mm
28%
600-650mm
16%
650-700mm
19%
700mm+
18%
550-600mm 27.8%
525-550mm 26.8%
650-700mm 19%
<425mm 19%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$1,656 Wol.
28%
425-450mm
$248 Wol.
13%
450-475mm
$177 Wol.
31%
475-500mm
$123 Wol.
25%
500-525mm
$145 Wol.
34%
525-550mm
$198 Wol.
27%
550-600mm
$161 Wol.
28%
600-650mm
$147 Wol.
16%
650-700mm
$110 Wol.
19%
700mm+
$833 Wol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong’s August rainfall totals hinge on the balance between persistent monsoon trough activity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and the timing or tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. With only about 125 mm recorded through early August against a long-term average near 400 mm, traders are weighting the likelihood of near-normal accumulation for the full month. Official seasonal guidance points to near-normal rainfall overall, yet El Niño development introduces variability by potentially enhancing storm intensity while altering steering patterns. Key differentiators among the closely bunched 450–525 mm outcomes include the number of landfalling or nearby typhoons in the remaining weeks and the strength of southwesterly monsoon flows, both of which can add or subtract 100–200 mm rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,797Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong’s August rainfall totals hinge on the balance between persistent monsoon trough activity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and the timing or tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. With only about 125 mm recorded through early August against a long-term average near 400 mm, traders are weighting the likelihood of near-normal accumulation for the full month. Official seasonal guidance points to near-normal rainfall overall, yet El Niño development introduces variability by potentially enhancing storm intensity while altering steering patterns. Key differentiators among the closely bunched 450–525 mm outcomes include the number of landfalling or nearby typhoons in the remaining weeks and the strength of southwesterly monsoon flows, both of which can add or subtract 100–200 mm rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$3,797Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong’s August rainfall totals hinge on the balance between persistent monsoon trough activity, frequent afternoon thunderstorms, and the timing or tracks of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific. With only about 125 mm recorded through early August against a long-term average near 400 mm, traders are weighting the likelihood of near-normal accumulation for the full month. Official seasonal guidance points to near-normal rainfall overall, yet El Niño development introduces variability by potentially enhancing storm intensity while altering steering patterns. Key differentiators among the closely bunched 450–525 mm outcomes include the number of landfalling or nearby typhoons in the remaining weeks and the strength of southwesterly monsoon flows, both of which can add or subtract 100–200 mm rapidly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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