Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day, along with a prisoner exchange of 1,000 personnel each side, following U.S. diplomatic intervention. The pause suspended major kinetic operations but faced immediate mutual accusations of violations, with limited subsequent implementation including a partial swap of 205 prisoners. Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks have produced no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, or demilitarization, while Russian officials have signaled that substantive negotiations remain a low priority amid continued ground offensives and airstrikes. These factors shape trader assessments of whether a durable ceasefire agreement can be reached by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$656,214 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
October 31
38%
December 31
51%
$656,214 Wol.
May 31
$279,370 Wol.
3%
June 30
$197,643 Wol.
12%
October 31
$57,065 Wol.
38%
December 31
$122,135 Wol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day, along with a prisoner exchange of 1,000 personnel each side, following U.S. diplomatic intervention. The pause suspended major kinetic operations but faced immediate mutual accusations of violations, with limited subsequent implementation including a partial swap of 205 prisoners. Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks have produced no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, or demilitarization, while Russian officials have signaled that substantive negotiations remain a low priority amid continued ground offensives and airstrikes. These factors shape trader assessments of whether a durable ceasefire agreement can be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$656,214Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day, along with a prisoner exchange of 1,000 personnel each side, following U.S. diplomatic intervention. The pause suspended major kinetic operations but faced immediate mutual accusations of violations, with limited subsequent implementation including a partial swap of 205 prisoners. Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks have produced no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, or demilitarization, while Russian officials have signaled that substantive negotiations remain a low priority amid continued ground offensives and airstrikes. These factors shape trader assessments of whether a durable ceasefire agreement can be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$656,214Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day, along with a prisoner exchange of 1,000 personnel each side, following U.S. diplomatic intervention. The pause suspended major kinetic operations but faced immediate mutual accusations of violations, with limited subsequent implementation including a partial swap of 205 prisoners. Ongoing U.S.-mediated trilateral talks have produced no breakthrough on core issues such as territorial control, security guarantees, or demilitarization, while Russian officials have signaled that substantive negotiations remain a low priority amid continued ground offensives and airstrikes. These factors shape trader assessments of whether a durable ceasefire agreement can be reached by year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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