Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.7% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO by June 30, reflecting Kyiv's firm stance on alliance aspirations amid stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia. President Zelenskyy's December 2025 conditional offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees has not advanced, as a revised U.S. 27-point plan removed the membership ban and negotiations remain deadlocked despite a February 2026 White House June deadline for a broader deal. Recent signals, including Zelenskyy's pivot to European defense partnerships and rejection of "NATO light" options, underscore domestic and strategic resistance to concessions without ironclad multilateral guarantees, with no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late escalations or finalized pacts could still alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$38,526 Wol.
$38,526 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$38,526 Wol.
$38,526 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.7% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO by June 30, reflecting Kyiv's firm stance on alliance aspirations amid stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia. President Zelenskyy's December 2025 conditional offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees has not advanced, as a revised U.S. 27-point plan removed the membership ban and negotiations remain deadlocked despite a February 2026 White House June deadline for a broader deal. Recent signals, including Zelenskyy's pivot to European defense partnerships and rejection of "NATO light" options, underscore domestic and strategic resistance to concessions without ironclad multilateral guarantees, with no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late escalations or finalized pacts could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$38,526Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.7% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO by June 30, reflecting Kyiv's firm stance on alliance aspirations amid stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia. President Zelenskyy's December 2025 conditional offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees has not advanced, as a revised U.S. 27-point plan removed the membership ban and negotiations remain deadlocked despite a February 2026 White House June deadline for a broader deal. Recent signals, including Zelenskyy's pivot to European defense partnerships and rejection of "NATO light" options, underscore domestic and strategic resistance to concessions without ironclad multilateral guarantees, with no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late escalations or finalized pacts could still alter trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Wolumen
$38,526Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.7% on Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO by June 30, reflecting Kyiv's firm stance on alliance aspirations amid stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia. President Zelenskyy's December 2025 conditional offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees has not advanced, as a revised U.S. 27-point plan removed the membership ban and negotiations remain deadlocked despite a February 2026 White House June deadline for a broader deal. Recent signals, including Zelenskyy's pivot to European defense partnerships and rejection of "NATO light" options, underscore domestic and strategic resistance to concessions without ironclad multilateral guarantees, with no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days to shift odds. Late escalations or finalized pacts could still alter trajectories.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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