Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin contest for third-most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election among New People (NL), Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), and Communist Party (KPRF), driven by late-April FOM and VCIOM polls clustering these systemic opposition parties at 6-16% behind United Russia's lead—LDPR around 10-14%, KPRF 9-13%, NL 6-16% with pollster variances. New People's surge, fueled by criticism of internet crackdowns and VPN curbs, prompted early-May Kremlin instructions to refocus their niche on urban youth and entrepreneurs, curbing momentum. LDPR faces internal turmoil post-Zhirinovsky, including arrests and a May 2 law banning his campaign imagery, while KPRF holds a loyal base amid slight erosion. Party primaries, candidate lists, and regional campaigns ahead could tip the balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNew People (NL) 28%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 20%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 20%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 9%

United Russia (ER)
4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
24%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
15%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
32%

New People (NL)
32%

Rodina
2%

Civic Platform (GP)
5%
New People (NL) 28%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 20%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 20%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) 9%

United Russia (ER)
4%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
24%

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
15%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
32%

New People (NL)
32%

Rodina
2%

Civic Platform (GP)
5%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 21, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin contest for third-most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election among New People (NL), Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR), and Communist Party (KPRF), driven by late-April FOM and VCIOM polls clustering these systemic opposition parties at 6-16% behind United Russia's lead—LDPR around 10-14%, KPRF 9-13%, NL 6-16% with pollster variances. New People's surge, fueled by criticism of internet crackdowns and VPN curbs, prompted early-May Kremlin instructions to refocus their niche on urban youth and entrepreneurs, curbing momentum. LDPR faces internal turmoil post-Zhirinovsky, including arrests and a May 2 law banning his campaign imagery, while KPRF holds a loyal base amid slight erosion. Party primaries, candidate lists, and regional campaigns ahead could tip the balance.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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