Persistent territorial disputes and Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions continue to block progress toward any comprehensive peace agreement before the June 30 deadline. Recent signals from Moscow, including President Putin’s May 10 remarks suggesting the conflict may be ending and openness to a third-country meeting only after a full treaty, have been met with European skepticism amid ongoing violations and maximalist positions on both sides. A brief May 9–11 ceasefire with prisoner exchanges marked the most recent diplomatic pause, yet no breakthrough has emerged from U.S.-brokered talks or trilateral formats. Traders assign just 6.7 percent odds to a deal by the deadline because these core security and territorial gaps remain unresolved despite intermittent low-level negotiations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$437,466 Wol.
$437,466 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
$437,466 Wol.
$437,466 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes and Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions continue to block progress toward any comprehensive peace agreement before the June 30 deadline. Recent signals from Moscow, including President Putin’s May 10 remarks suggesting the conflict may be ending and openness to a third-country meeting only after a full treaty, have been met with European skepticism amid ongoing violations and maximalist positions on both sides. A brief May 9–11 ceasefire with prisoner exchanges marked the most recent diplomatic pause, yet no breakthrough has emerged from U.S.-brokered talks or trilateral formats. Traders assign just 6.7 percent odds to a deal by the deadline because these core security and territorial gaps remain unresolved despite intermittent low-level negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Wolumen
$437,466Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent territorial disputes and Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions continue to block progress toward any comprehensive peace agreement before the June 30 deadline. Recent signals from Moscow, including President Putin’s May 10 remarks suggesting the conflict may be ending and openness to a third-country meeting only after a full treaty, have been met with European skepticism amid ongoing violations and maximalist positions on both sides. A brief May 9–11 ceasefire with prisoner exchanges marked the most recent diplomatic pause, yet no breakthrough has emerged from U.S.-brokered talks or trilateral formats. Traders assign just 6.7 percent odds to a deal by the deadline because these core security and territorial gaps remain unresolved despite intermittent low-level negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$437,466Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent territorial disputes and Russian demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions continue to block progress toward any comprehensive peace agreement before the June 30 deadline. Recent signals from Moscow, including President Putin’s May 10 remarks suggesting the conflict may be ending and openness to a third-country meeting only after a full treaty, have been met with European skepticism amid ongoing violations and maximalist positions on both sides. A brief May 9–11 ceasefire with prisoner exchanges marked the most recent diplomatic pause, yet no breakthrough has emerged from U.S.-brokered talks or trilateral formats. Traders assign just 6.7 percent odds to a deal by the deadline because these core security and territorial gaps remain unresolved despite intermittent low-level negotiations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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