**No constitutional referendum has been formally announced as of late August 2026, consistent with the 86% market probability against it occurring this year.** Ruling AKP-MHP alliance statements and parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have outlined ambitions for a new civilian constitution in 2026-2027 to address term limits, judicial reforms, and national unity, with President Erdoğan recently tasking legal experts to prepare drafts. Recent passage of the PKK-related “national solidarity” law secured unusually broad support (467 votes), including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, potentially easing the path toward the 360-seat threshold needed for a referendum. However, the alliance currently holds only around 323 seats, constitutional change remains politically contested, and no draft text or referendum date has advanced to an official announcement. Traders appear to view 2026 action as unlikely absent faster parliamentary consensus or a surprise early-election trigger.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano14% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
14% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No constitutional referendum has been formally announced as of late August 2026, consistent with the 86% market probability against it occurring this year.** Ruling AKP-MHP alliance statements and parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have outlined ambitions for a new civilian constitution in 2026-2027 to address term limits, judicial reforms, and national unity, with President Erdoğan recently tasking legal experts to prepare drafts. Recent passage of the PKK-related “national solidarity” law secured unusually broad support (467 votes), including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, potentially easing the path toward the 360-seat threshold needed for a referendum. However, the alliance currently holds only around 323 seats, constitutional change remains politically contested, and no draft text or referendum date has advanced to an official announcement. Traders appear to view 2026 action as unlikely absent faster parliamentary consensus or a surprise early-election trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No constitutional referendum has been formally announced as of late August 2026, consistent with the 86% market probability against it occurring this year.** Ruling AKP-MHP alliance statements and parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have outlined ambitions for a new civilian constitution in 2026-2027 to address term limits, judicial reforms, and national unity, with President Erdoğan recently tasking legal experts to prepare drafts. Recent passage of the PKK-related “national solidarity” law secured unusually broad support (467 votes), including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, potentially easing the path toward the 360-seat threshold needed for a referendum. However, the alliance currently holds only around 323 seats, constitutional change remains politically contested, and no draft text or referendum date has advanced to an official announcement. Traders appear to view 2026 action as unlikely absent faster parliamentary consensus or a surprise early-election trigger.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$6,734Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No constitutional referendum has been formally announced as of late August 2026, consistent with the 86% market probability against it occurring this year.** Ruling AKP-MHP alliance statements and parliamentary speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have outlined ambitions for a new civilian constitution in 2026-2027 to address term limits, judicial reforms, and national unity, with President Erdoğan recently tasking legal experts to prepare drafts. Recent passage of the PKK-related “national solidarity” law secured unusually broad support (467 votes), including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, potentially easing the path toward the 360-seat threshold needed for a referendum. However, the alliance currently holds only around 323 seats, constitutional change remains politically contested, and no draft text or referendum date has advanced to an official announcement. Traders appear to view 2026 action as unlikely absent faster parliamentary consensus or a surprise early-election trigger.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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