**Ongoing disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees have kept formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia largely stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges.** Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions including the Donbas and resolution of broader security issues, positions Ukraine has rejected in favor of robust guarantees and European involvement. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming talks, while recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet restarted substantive dialogue amid U.S. attention on other priorities. European diplomatic initiatives seeking a seat at the table have drawn Russian skepticism. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air operations, alongside incompatible core demands, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to no comprehensive deal before the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano17% szansa
$2,557,186 Wol.
$2,557,186 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
17% szansa
$2,557,186 Wol.
$2,557,186 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees have kept formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia largely stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges.** Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions including the Donbas and resolution of broader security issues, positions Ukraine has rejected in favor of robust guarantees and European involvement. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming talks, while recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet restarted substantive dialogue amid U.S. attention on other priorities. European diplomatic initiatives seeking a seat at the table have drawn Russian skepticism. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air operations, alongside incompatible core demands, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to no comprehensive deal before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,557,186Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees have kept formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia largely stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges.** Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions including the Donbas and resolution of broader security issues, positions Ukraine has rejected in favor of robust guarantees and European involvement. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming talks, while recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet restarted substantive dialogue amid U.S. attention on other priorities. European diplomatic initiatives seeking a seat at the table have drawn Russian skepticism. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air operations, alongside incompatible core demands, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to no comprehensive deal before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,557,186Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing disagreements over territorial concessions and security guarantees have kept formal peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia largely stalled since early 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges.** Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from claimed regions including the Donbas and resolution of broader security issues, positions Ukraine has rejected in favor of robust guarantees and European involvement. Kremlin statements in July 2026 explicitly noted no immediate prospects for resuming talks, while recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet restarted substantive dialogue amid U.S. attention on other priorities. European diplomatic initiatives seeking a seat at the table have drawn Russian skepticism. Persistent battlefield activity, including Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian air operations, alongside incompatible core demands, underpin trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to no comprehensive deal before the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania