**Traders see negligible odds of Ukraine and Russia finalizing a comprehensive peace agreement by August 31 because core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved after multiple stalled rounds of U.S.-brokered talks.** Recent diplomacy, including February 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus June exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow, produced only prisoner swaps while Russia maintained maximalist demands for control of Donbas and limits on Ukrainian alliances. The Kremlin stated in July that it sees no immediate prospect for resuming substantive negotiations, and fighting continues with intensified strikes on both sides. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active high-level momentum or concessions leaves almost no runway for the required bilateral accord. Late diplomatic surprises or battlefield shifts could theoretically alter the timeline, but entrenched positions and procedural realities make such developments highly improbable before month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1% szansa
$260,646 Wol.
$260,646 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
1% szansa
$260,646 Wol.
$260,646 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders see negligible odds of Ukraine and Russia finalizing a comprehensive peace agreement by August 31 because core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved after multiple stalled rounds of U.S.-brokered talks.** Recent diplomacy, including February 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus June exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow, produced only prisoner swaps while Russia maintained maximalist demands for control of Donbas and limits on Ukrainian alliances. The Kremlin stated in July that it sees no immediate prospect for resuming substantive negotiations, and fighting continues with intensified strikes on both sides. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active high-level momentum or concessions leaves almost no runway for the required bilateral accord. Late diplomatic surprises or battlefield shifts could theoretically alter the timeline, but entrenched positions and procedural realities make such developments highly improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Wolumen
$260,646Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders see negligible odds of Ukraine and Russia finalizing a comprehensive peace agreement by August 31 because core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved after multiple stalled rounds of U.S.-brokered talks.** Recent diplomacy, including February 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus June exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow, produced only prisoner swaps while Russia maintained maximalist demands for control of Donbas and limits on Ukrainian alliances. The Kremlin stated in July that it sees no immediate prospect for resuming substantive negotiations, and fighting continues with intensified strikes on both sides. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active high-level momentum or concessions leaves almost no runway for the required bilateral accord. Late diplomatic surprises or battlefield shifts could theoretically alter the timeline, but entrenched positions and procedural realities make such developments highly improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$260,646Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders see negligible odds of Ukraine and Russia finalizing a comprehensive peace agreement by August 31 because core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved after multiple stalled rounds of U.S.-brokered talks.** Recent diplomacy, including February 2026 trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva plus June exchanges between Kyiv and Moscow, produced only prisoner swaps while Russia maintained maximalist demands for control of Donbas and limits on Ukrainian alliances. The Kremlin stated in July that it sees no immediate prospect for resuming substantive negotiations, and fighting continues with intensified strikes on both sides. With roughly two weeks remaining, the absence of active high-level momentum or concessions leaves almost no runway for the required bilateral accord. Late diplomatic surprises or battlefield shifts could theoretically alter the timeline, but entrenched positions and procedural realities make such developments highly improbable before month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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