Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows precursory low-level activity at Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu summit vent, including intermittent dome fountaining and overflows from the north vent, began midday on August 12 with ongoing summit inflation. Inflation models have narrowed the window for full episode 53 lava fountaining to today or tomorrow, prompting an alert level increase to WATCH and aviation color code to ORANGE. This latest observational data, building on earlier August 11–14 and 13–17 forecasts, positions trader sentiment around the timing of sustained high fountains, as precursory phases can last hours to days before the main episode resolves the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 13 or later 44%
Aug 11-12 39%
Aug 8 or earlier 2.8%
Aug 9-10 1.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
3%
Aug 9-10
1%
Aug 11-12
39%
Aug 13 or later
53%
Aug 13 or later 44%
Aug 11-12 39%
Aug 8 or earlier 2.8%
Aug 9-10 1.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$454 Wol.
3%
Aug 9-10
$1,218 Wol.
1%
Aug 11-12
$1,558 Wol.
39%
Aug 13 or later
$1,338 Wol.
53%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows precursory low-level activity at Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu summit vent, including intermittent dome fountaining and overflows from the north vent, began midday on August 12 with ongoing summit inflation. Inflation models have narrowed the window for full episode 53 lava fountaining to today or tomorrow, prompting an alert level increase to WATCH and aviation color code to ORANGE. This latest observational data, building on earlier August 11–14 and 13–17 forecasts, positions trader sentiment around the timing of sustained high fountains, as precursory phases can last hours to days before the main episode resolves the market.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$4,569Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows precursory low-level activity at Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu summit vent, including intermittent dome fountaining and overflows from the north vent, began midday on August 12 with ongoing summit inflation. Inflation models have narrowed the window for full episode 53 lava fountaining to today or tomorrow, prompting an alert level increase to WATCH and aviation color code to ORANGE. This latest observational data, building on earlier August 11–14 and 13–17 forecasts, positions trader sentiment around the timing of sustained high fountains, as precursory phases can last hours to days before the main episode resolves the market.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Wolumen
$4,569Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory monitoring shows precursory low-level activity at Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu summit vent, including intermittent dome fountaining and overflows from the north vent, began midday on August 12 with ongoing summit inflation. Inflation models have narrowed the window for full episode 53 lava fountaining to today or tomorrow, prompting an alert level increase to WATCH and aviation color code to ORANGE. This latest observational data, building on earlier August 11–14 and 13–17 forecasts, positions trader sentiment around the timing of sustained high fountains, as precursory phases can last hours to days before the main episode resolves the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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