Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, continue to shape trader sentiment for the next diplomatic meeting, with recent Iranian responses to US proposals routed through Islamabad highlighting its central facilitation role. Persistent disagreements over nuclear verification, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz stability have kept direct talks from advancing since the April rounds, sustaining near-even odds between a Pakistan venue and no meeting by June 30. Key upcoming catalysts include any formal follow-up proposals or third-party mediation signals that could resolve sticking points, while prolonged review periods or renewed blockade pressures might widen the gap toward delay. This balance reflects trader assessments of incremental diplomatic momentum against entrenched positions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGdzie odbędzie się kolejne spotkanie dyplomatyczne USA-Iran?
Brak spotkania do 30 czerwca 50.8%
Pakistan 37.5%
Inne 2.8%
Szwajcaria 2.8%
$6,450,541 Wol.
$6,450,541 Wol.
Brak spotkania do 30 czerwca
51%
Pakistan
37%
Inne
3%
Szwajcaria
3%
Oman
1%
Katar
1%
USA
1%
Austria
1%
Egipt
<1%
Turcja
<1%
Włochy
<1%
Iran
<1%
Irak
<1%
Inne – Bliski Wschód/Północna Afryka
<1%
Inne - Europa
<1%
Arabia Saudyjska
<1%
Rosja
<1%
ZEA
<1%
Kazachstan
<1%
Brak spotkania do 30 czerwca 50.8%
Pakistan 37.5%
Inne 2.8%
Szwajcaria 2.8%
$6,450,541 Wol.
$6,450,541 Wol.
Brak spotkania do 30 czerwca
51%
Pakistan
37%
Inne
3%
Szwajcaria
3%
Oman
1%
Katar
1%
USA
1%
Austria
1%
Egipt
<1%
Turcja
<1%
Włochy
<1%
Iran
<1%
Irak
<1%
Inne – Bliski Wschód/Północna Afryka
<1%
Inne - Europa
<1%
Arabia Saudyjska
<1%
Rosja
<1%
ZEA
<1%
Kazachstan
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing indirect US-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, continue to shape trader sentiment for the next diplomatic meeting, with recent Iranian responses to US proposals routed through Islamabad highlighting its central facilitation role. Persistent disagreements over nuclear verification, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz stability have kept direct talks from advancing since the April rounds, sustaining near-even odds between a Pakistan venue and no meeting by June 30. Key upcoming catalysts include any formal follow-up proposals or third-party mediation signals that could resolve sticking points, while prolonged review periods or renewed blockade pressures might widen the gap toward delay. This balance reflects trader assessments of incremental diplomatic momentum against entrenched positions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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