Recent reports of US-Iran negotiators advancing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding through Pakistani mediation—including Tehran's formal response last week—have elevated trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. This momentum stems from multiple rounds of indirect talks since February's Geneva sessions, where mediators noted significant progress on frameworks, followed by April's Islamabad meetings hosted by Pakistan. Key disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment suspension, ballistic missile curbs, and US sanctions relief, with a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear freeze under discussion. Upcoming Vienna technical talks could tip the balance amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and mutual de-escalation incentives.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$1,311,513 Wol.
$1,311,513 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$1,311,513 Wol.
$1,311,513 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent reports of US-Iran negotiators advancing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding through Pakistani mediation—including Tehran's formal response last week—have elevated trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. This momentum stems from multiple rounds of indirect talks since February's Geneva sessions, where mediators noted significant progress on frameworks, followed by April's Islamabad meetings hosted by Pakistan. Key disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment suspension, ballistic missile curbs, and US sanctions relief, with a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear freeze under discussion. Upcoming Vienna technical talks could tip the balance amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and mutual de-escalation incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,311,513Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent reports of US-Iran negotiators advancing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding through Pakistani mediation—including Tehran's formal response last week—have elevated trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. This momentum stems from multiple rounds of indirect talks since February's Geneva sessions, where mediators noted significant progress on frameworks, followed by April's Islamabad meetings hosted by Pakistan. Key disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment suspension, ballistic missile curbs, and US sanctions relief, with a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear freeze under discussion. Upcoming Vienna technical talks could tip the balance amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and mutual de-escalation incentives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$1,311,513Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports of US-Iran negotiators advancing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding through Pakistani mediation—including Tehran's formal response last week—have elevated trader consensus to a 56.5% implied probability for a nuclear deal before 2027. This momentum stems from multiple rounds of indirect talks since February's Geneva sessions, where mediators noted significant progress on frameworks, followed by April's Islamabad meetings hosted by Pakistan. Key disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment suspension, ballistic missile curbs, and US sanctions relief, with a US proposal for a 20-year nuclear freeze under discussion. Upcoming Vienna technical talks could tip the balance amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and mutual de-escalation incentives.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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