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Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

icon for Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Wybory·Trump

Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?

Scott Wiener 87%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.2%

Connie Chan 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Wol.

Scott Wiener 87%

Saikat Chakrabarti 7.2%

Connie Chan 2.3%

Cole Bettles <1%

Polymarket

$357,865 Wol.

Scott Wiener

$39,987 Wol.

87%

Saikat Chakrabarti

$23,596 Wol.

7%

Connie Chan

$206,212 Wol.

2%

Cole Bettles

$15,637 Wol.

<1%

Darren Helton

$19,351 Wol.

<1%

Jingchao Xiong

$41,386 Wol.

<1%

David Ganezer

$11,696 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District because of his California Democratic Party endorsement, years of groundwork as a state senator and former San Francisco supervisor, and consistent polling advantages across demographic groups. Recent May 2026 surveys, including a San Francisco Chronicle poll, show him far ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan, who remain locked in a tight contest for second place ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign and progressive Justice Democrats background, along with Chan’s labor and local supervisor support, have not yet narrowed the gap despite recent candidate forums and fundraising activity. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Wiener’s established institutional advantages and the district’s safe Democratic character.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$357,865
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Scott Wiener holds a commanding lead in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi in California’s 11th District because of his California Democratic Party endorsement, years of groundwork as a state senator and former San Francisco supervisor, and consistent polling advantages across demographic groups. Recent May 2026 surveys, including a San Francisco Chronicle poll, show him far ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan, who remain locked in a tight contest for second place ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Chakrabarti’s self-funded campaign and progressive Justice Democrats background, along with Chan’s labor and local supervisor support, have not yet narrowed the gap despite recent candidate forums and fundraising activity. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects Wiener’s established institutional advantages and the district’s safe Democratic character.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$357,865
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 24, 2025, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 7 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Scott Wiener" z 87%, za nim "Saikat Chakrabarti" z 7%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 87¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 87% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" wygenerował $357.9K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 24, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?", przeglądaj 7 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" jest "Scott Wiener" z 87%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 87% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Saikat Chakrabarti" z 7%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.