**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities center on airstrikes, a naval blockade, and sanctions pressure rather than ground invasion.** The conflict escalated with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets beginning February 2026, followed by Iranian retaliation and repeated rounds of US airstrikes through mid-2027 targeting missile, drone, and coastal military sites. A June 17, 2026, memorandum of understanding aimed at a 60-day negotiation window to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address nuclear and sanctions issues expired without agreement on August 17. As of mid-to-late August 2026, the Trump administration has shifted emphasis to maximum economic pressure, including reimposed sanctions, a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and threats of secondary sanctions on third parties trading with Iran. President Trump has publicly ruled out talks, asserted control over Hormuz shipping lanes, and framed the approach as “economic D-Day” to weaken the regime. Iran has conditioned any reopening of the strait on full US concessions, including sanctions relief and an end to the blockade, while maintaining defensive and limited offensive capabilities. Analysts and military experts assess a large-scale US ground invasion as highly improbable due to the scale of forces required (potentially 100,000+ troops), logistical challenges inside Iran, risks to regional stability and global energy markets, and domestic political constraints. US operations have remained focused on air and naval power, special operations options, and economic attrition. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a formal US invasion of Iran will not occur before 2027.