Ongoing US-Iran ceasefire since early April 2026 has held amid stalled nuclear and maritime negotiations, with the United States relying on airstrikes, a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Strait of Hormuz enforcement rather than ground operations. President Trump has rejected multiple Iranian proposals on enrichment limits and sanctions relief, while directing targeted strikes on infrastructure and continuing diplomatic exchanges via Pakistani and Omani mediators. Pentagon planning has emphasized limited raids and naval pressure over large-scale troop deployments, reflecting institutional reluctance for sustained occupation costs. These developments have anchored trader consensus around a 69.5% probability that no US invasion occurs before 2027, as escalation remains confined to air and sea domains despite intermittent clashes through mid-May.