Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Czy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Tak
$28,538,899 Wol.
$28,538,899 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$28,538,899 Wol.
$28,538,899 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$28,538,899Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Wolumen
$28,539,804Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US military operations against Iran have relied on airstrikes, naval blockades, and targeted special operations rather than large-scale ground forces. The administration has pursued maximum pressure through sanctions, limited raids, and diplomatic leverage amid stalled nuclear talks, consistent with reluctance to repeat the costs of prior occupations. President Trump's May 11 rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal has kept tensions elevated without shifting to full invasion planning. Pentagon assessments continue to favor contained actions over occupation, while traders weigh these constraints and historical patterns against any escalation risks through 2026. This sustains the market's 70.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs before 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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