The overwhelming trader consensus on a "No" outcome reflects the lack of any ongoing House investigations, articles of impeachment, or bipartisan momentum as of mid-May 2026. With Republicans holding the majority and no scheduled floor votes or committee actions in the coming weeks, the procedural timeline for drafting charges, securing passage, and conducting a Senate trial makes completion before June 30 unrealistic. Historical patterns show that even accelerated impeachment efforts have required months rather than weeks. Late-breaking developments such as new congressional inquiries or sudden shifts in House leadership could theoretically reopen the process, though current legislative calendars and party alignments provide no indication of such changes materializing in time.