Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and fireball monitoring show no credible near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing that energy threshold. Historical rates place such airbursts roughly once per century, and the first eight months of 2026 produced only minor events well below 1 kiloton. With just four months remaining, the window for an undetected impact has narrowed sharply. Planetary defense simulations and ongoing surveys reinforce that no large body currently poses this risk, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast-moving asteroid could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 1 megatonelada em 2026?
Sim
2% chance
$116,892 Vol.
$116,892 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
2% chance
$116,892 Vol.
$116,892 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and fireball monitoring show no credible near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing that energy threshold. Historical rates place such airbursts roughly once per century, and the first eight months of 2026 produced only minor events well below 1 kiloton. With just four months remaining, the window for an undetected impact has narrowed sharply. Planetary defense simulations and ongoing surveys reinforce that no large body currently poses this risk, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast-moving asteroid could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,892Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and fireball monitoring show no credible near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing that energy threshold. Historical rates place such airbursts roughly once per century, and the first eight months of 2026 produced only minor events well below 1 kiloton. With just four months remaining, the window for an undetected impact has narrowed sharply. Planetary defense simulations and ongoing surveys reinforce that no large body currently poses this risk, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast-moving asteroid could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,892Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and fireball monitoring show no credible near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of releasing that energy threshold. Historical rates place such airbursts roughly once per century, and the first eight months of 2026 produced only minor events well below 1 kiloton. With just four months remaining, the window for an undetected impact has narrowed sharply. Planetary defense simulations and ongoing surveys reinforce that no large body currently poses this risk, though an unforeseen late discovery of a small, fast-moving asteroid could theoretically alter the outcome before year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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